30th June 2022
general
Investors are understandably concerned about the global economy and the prospects for investing. While some initial volatility is to be expected, it’s worth taking a long-term view. An investment plan does not run its course over a few months, or even a few years. During a lifetime of investing in a diverse range of assets, volatility is to be expected and absorbed.
Here are some reasons why 2022 could be a good time to start investing:
Ongoing market resilience
In the chart above (from FE Trustnet), the line represents the FTSE All Share (UK companies) over the last 12 months prior to April 2022. As you can see, the index experienced volatility early in the new year. However, the index now stands at nearly its highest point over the last 3 years - since before the pandemic hit our shores.
Many people would not have considered investing in early March. Yet had they done so, a 6% - 8% return to date would not be unrealistic. Of course, at the time, things were very uncertain and there was a strong feeling that the dire situation in Ukraine could worsen.
The market has bounced back slightly, but there is still potential for growth as the conflict appears to concentrate more in the east of Ukraine - limiting the chances of it spilling over into a global confrontation. By waiting until the situation settles down (as many investors are doing), it is very easy to miss out on the best days of the recovery.
Regular investing has an added advantage, as your funds can benefit from pound cost averaging. When the market rises, you profit from the investment gains. When the market falls, you have the advantage of low prices and can buy more shares for the same monthly contribution.
We cannot predict or time the market. A long-term plan relies on investing, and staying invested, through the peaks and troughs.
Economic Cycles
When investing, we expect a degree of volatility. A major world event, leading to a recession, can be assumed to occur roughly every ten years.
The chart below shows the FTSE All Share and FTSE World indices since the data began in 1994. We can see the dips caused by the tech crash in the early 2000s, the September 11th terrorist attacks, the 2008 Credit Crunch and financial crisis, and finally, the Coronavirus.
Each of these events caused catastrophic damage. But the economy is resilient and even with volatility, values have generally moved in an upward direction. Every recession in history has been followed by a recovery, which is usually longer than the recession and more than recoups any losses. There is no reason to believe that this won’t continue.
Inflation
While most people are aware of the risks of investing, fewer are willing to consider the risks of not investing. Cash interest rates are at a historic low point despite recent interest rate rises by the Bank of England (to 0.75%). Inflation also now stands at over 6%. This means that if your money doesn’t grow in value, it will be worth far less in a year or so. Your investments may not be able to provide you with the lifestyle you require if they don’t at least keep pace with inflation.
Inflation is caused by rising prices, which in turn is caused by higher costs of materials, transport, wages and other operational costs. It can also be caused by higher demand for goods and services. As restrictions ease, demand is likely to increase, at least in some sectors. Businesses will need to comply with social distancing and safety requirements, and may face extra logistical or operational costs. These costs will need to be passed on to customers.
Inflation is a certainty, and investing now provides the best chance of your money retaining its value.
Innovation
With challenges come innovation, and we are currently in one of the most challenging periods in recent history. Companies and governments are seeking solutions that are not only effective, but also profitable. As we adjust to our new normal, some sectors are expected to grow significantly. For example:
2022 may be a pivotal point in history, with vast opportunities to invest in new innovations. While we cannot predict the companies that will do well, the point is that societal change is not a reason to delay or avoid investing, as there are plenty of growth opportunities.
Diversification
As we cannot predict which companies, sectors and countries will thrive (and when), the best investment strategy invests across a range of assets. The goal is for the different investments to offset each other, so that when one falls, others rise.
Holding a diverse portfolio means not worrying about how world events impact a particular sector, or whether you are buying and selling at the right time.
Diversification is the simplest way to gain the benefit of market growth while reducing risk exposure in any one area.
The Best Time is Always Now
2022 is a great time to start investing. But so was 2021. The key point is that over the long-term, investments generally do grow in value, even if there is some early volatility. It is far better to invest now, whenever now happens to be, rather than waiting for some ideal future opportunity.
Please don’t hesitate to contact a member of the team if you would like to find out more about your investment options.
1. https://www.hsbc.co.uk/wealth/articles/sustainable-investing/
